Poker win rate variance
Id recommend trying a variance calculator out for yourself for testing different win rates and standard deviations.
The bold green online roulette canada no limit lines show the confidence intervals.
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These periods can go on for weeks or even months, resulting in your bankroll taking a nosedive.He has good days where he wins a ton and bad days where he loses quite a bit.EV, confidence intervals and samples in BB, Best / Worst: Best and worst run out of 1000 trials.Very good live cash game players have no variance problems The example we just went through shows that after a few months of play a good live cash-game player can expect to simply outlast any negative variance he might encounter along the way.Should you have any questions, encounter any errors or have ideas for improvements, please let me know.Meaning: at any given time theres only a 5 per cent chance that his winnings will be above the upper dark green graph or below the lower dark green graph.If so you are probably throwing money down the drain as a result of bad decisions.It also shows the best and worst run out of 1,000 trials (the bold blue and red lines).Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts 44 comments 80 Upvoted, community Details r/poker 676, online, shuffle up and deal!Some experienced players will say they would not judge another player's success without seeing their stats after a million hands.Further Reading on Variance in Poker.
Are you on tilt?Infographic courtesy.And even the worst run out of 1,000 trials is way above the zero line.Hands : number of hands entered above.The small things in poker: stealing blinds, the occasional well-timed bluff, continuation betting and checking at the opportune moments, are what make us the most profit in the long term.But the example also shows that over short periods of time you must take variance into consideration.Thirdly the calculator displays the 70 venetian resort hotel casino las vegas nv and 95 confidence intervals as light and dark green curves.
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